On the Eve, Eve of the Iowa Caucus...Let The Election Games Begin!

Iowa Poll on Sunday before the Caucus reports......

Link: http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/romney-leads-paul-in-new-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-santorum-surging/

......Romney leads at 24 percent, Paul has 22 percent and Rick Santorum, 15 percent.

Newt Gingrich is at 12 percent, Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.

The total of Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann is 30

Take half of Gingrich 6, 2/3^rds of Perry's 9 and 6.85 of Bachmann and total it 21.85 add to Santorum you get 15 plus 21.85 you get 36.85.

Now, take the other half of *Gingrich 6, the remainder of Perry 2, and .15 of Bachmann give it to let’s just say Romney and not Paul because Paul has pretty much leveled out. Anyway, give it to Romney which the total is 8.15 and he has 24 plus 8.15 and that is 32.15. This is less than Santorum but more than Paul.

Santorum 36.85
Romney 32.15
Paul 22

*The wild card in the deal is Gingrich because he appeals to independents and moderates more of those could be spread out over Paul and Romney instead making it more of a two man race but I don’t think so considering how the spread shows the way it spreads across the remaining three candidates. People are still trying to make a decision. We have our top three but who knows who the others will spread the vote out in the next primary. Remember, it came down to Romney and Huckabee in 2008 which is a moderate/conservative vote and that is what the fight is about. Really no difference here just a little more dicey.

That is the vote for a Santorum-Conservative vote spread out over the others right now and that is my best guess if the others dropped out today. We will see.